Gunnar Fahlgren

Weather reports at 10:00 indicated a temperature at Smolensk of 1°C, Dew Point:1°C, wind from 140 degrees at 6 knots, Pressure: 1026 hPa, heavy fog.

Here you can find the map of the airport.

/maps.google.com/maps?ll=54.821295,32.027089&z=14&t=h&hl=en

Aircraft crashed about 500 meters east of runway 26.

Airport wind 140 degrees 6 knots. There seems to be no approach lights and consequently no ILS.

My theory: Probably a low speed/low level approach in TAIL WIND.

The dangerous effect of tail wind reduction at low altitude will increase heavily if the aircraft already is low and has a low speed.

If these weather conditions are valid and there is no ILS available, I believe no airline captain would have started an approach but immediately diverted to his alternate.

According to Swedish newspapers, referring to Komsolskaja Pravda, the president himself gave order to the captain to make the approaches in order to be in time for his speech on TV.

And an Air Force officer might have problems in refusing his president.

Even if the ground controler is advising him to divert: